Apart from supply chain disruptions, Moody's also expects consumption and investment to be affected and prices of oil and other commodities to remain around current lows until the end of June.
Airline stocks have been soaring following a steep decline in crude oil prices and sustained passenger traffic. Analysts have particularly turned bullish on the stocks of InterGlobe Aviation and SpiceJet. On December 20, shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) hit a record high of Rs 3,009 on the BSE, having surged 43.24 per cent year-to-date (YTD).
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Tata Steel, Maruti, Infosys, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Titan, Reliance Industries, Wipro and Mahindra & Mahindra were the biggest gainers. Sun Pharma, UltraTech Cement, Tata Motors, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India and Nestle were among the laggards.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
Sounding a note of caution, the Reserve Bank said on Friday said there is a risk of high wholesale price inflation (WPI) putting pressure on the retail inflation, albeit with a lag. In its annual report, the RBI said that the cost-push pressures from high industrial raw material prices, transportation costs and global logistics, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to impinge on core inflation. "The substantial wedge between wholesale and retail price inflation amidst a sharp rise in manufactured products' inflation poses the risk of a possible passthrough of input cost pressures to retail inflation with a lag, although slack in the economy is muting the pass-through," the central bank noted.
Taiwanese electronic contract manufacturer Foxconn on Monday said it has decided to pull out of semiconductor joint venture with Indian conglomerate Vedanta, according to a statement. Foxconn said it is "working to remove the Foxconn name from what now is a fully-owned entity of Vedanta". "Foxconn has no connection to the entity and efforts to keep its original name will cause confusion for future stakeholders," Hon Hai Technology group (Foxconn) said.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gained around half a per cent to close at nearly five-month high levels on Monday following continuous foreign fund inflows and firm trends in Asian and European markets. Rising for a second straight day, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 317.81 points or 0.51 per cent to settle at 62,345.71, the highest closing level since December 14. During the day, it rallied 534.77 points or 0.86 per cent to 62,562.67.
Arun Kumar Singh, former chairman of oil refining and marketing company BPCL, was on Wednesday appointed chairman and managing director of ONGC -- the first instance of a retired person being appointed the head of a Maharatna PSU. "The Appointments Committee of Cabinet (ACC) has approved the proposal of ministry of petroleum and natural gas for appointment of Arun Kumar Singh, ex-CMD, BPCL as chairman, ONGC for a three-year tenure with effect from the date of his assumption of charge of the post," an official order said. PTI first reported of Singh's appointment on November 17.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
RBI's projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor so low as to weaken inducement to invest, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. However, entrenched inflation may prolong the tightening cycle and therefore, borrowing costs may stay 'higher for longer', it said. The Economic Survey 2022-23 was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
'Are we to believe that coordinated moves by the Canadian and US authorities are no longer taking place?', asks Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The RBI on Friday retained inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 per cent amid uncertain price trajectory on "geopolitical shocks" and on hope that inflationary pressures would ease with pick-up in kharif sowing and supply chain improvements. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, higher from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to raise the benchmark repo rate by a steep 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent with immediate effect to tame inflation while supporting growth.
The share of slow-moving orders in the overall order book of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is at a multi-year low. This has led to a renewed focus on fast-moving orders. A mix of factors such as commodity price fluctuations, robust order inflow and strong sectoral demand have put capital goods order book in the fast lane, analysts and company executives said. L&T, with its large presence in the capital goods sector, is often seen as the bellwether for trends in this space.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to a four-month high of 14.55 per cent in March, mainly due to hardening of crude oil and commodity prices, even though vegetables witnessed easing of price pressures. As per the government data released on Monday, WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the 12th consecutive month beginning April 2021. The last time such a level of WPI was recorded was in November 2021, when inflation was 14.87 per cent.
'Large-caps are better placed to withstand the impact of higher input cost inflation, rising rates and withdrawal of excess global liquidity.'
India is expected to contribute 15 per cent to the global growth in 2023, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Tuesday. "Both India and China are expected to contribute 50 per cent of the global growth in the upcoming year (2023). "However, the share of India's contribution to global growth is expected to be around 15 per cent," Krishna Srinivasan, director, Asia and Pacific Department (APD) at IMF said at a roundtable with reporters from south Asian countries.
The strident support from the hotels comes at a time when the industry is itself caught off guard with a sharp dip in both in-bound traffic from foreign markets, reduced domestic traction as well as a total shut-down of MICE business that has led the country top players by market cap to lose over half their value in just a little over a month.
Titan, Maruti Suzuki India, Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra and Hindustan Unilever Limited were the biggest drags on the Sensex, tumbling up to 5.05 per cent. In contrast, ITC, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Tech Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
The government on September 14 further reduced the stock limit on wheat traders, wholesalers and big chain retailers to 2,000 tonnes from 3,000 tonnes with immediate effect to control wheat prices, which are showing an uptick again after being stable for some time. Announcing the move, food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said that retail prices of key essential food items, especially wheat, rice, sugar, and edible oils, were unlikely to see any sharp rise in the upcoming festival season as the country had adequate supply and the government was keeping a close vigil on hoarders.
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
India expects to remain unscathed this time, mainly because it is in a sweet spot as the world's third largest oil consumer, after the US and China, says Subhomoy Bhattacharjee.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
'We plan to touch Rs 1 trillion of Amul brand's turnover in the next five years.'
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier on rising inflation and the longer-than-expected Russia-Ukraine conflict. In its Global Macro Update to Growth Forecasts, S&P said inflation remaining higher for long is a worry, which requires central banks to raise rates more than what is currently priced in, risking a harder landing, including a larger hit to output and employment. S&P had in December last year pegged India's GDP growth in the 2022-23 fiscal, which began on April 1, 2022, at 7.8 per cent.
'If the almost literally heart-stopping Suez block has any positive outcome, it is to be hoped that it will accelerate the setting up of a fab (perhaps Taiwanese) in India,' asserts Rajeev Srinivasan.
From the 30-share pack, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, TCS, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Wipro and HCL Technologies were among the major laggards in early trade. Nifty tumbled 314.95 points to 17,160.70.
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday lowered India's GDP growth forecast for the 2020 calendar year to 5.3 per cent, on coronavirus implications on the economy. Moody's had in February projected a 5.4 per cent real GDP growth for India in 2020. This too was a downgrade from 6.6 per cent earlier forecast.
'India seems to be on a relatively better wicket compared to other emerging markets.'
'When you need to revive the economy, when you need to revive aggregate demand, you cut taxes.' 'But what's this government doing?' 'It's increasing taxes for the middle class and the vast majority of the poor on fuel, which has a ratchet effect on most other products.'
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) aims to sell 4-6 lakh CNG units in the current fiscal year depending upon supply situation of essential components, as per a senior company official. The company sold about 2.3 lakh CNG units in 2021-22. MSI currently sells nine of its 15 models with CNG powertrain and is looking to drive in more models with such technology in the coming days.
Each bottle of pickle that leaves FarmDidi, headed to a consumer, has a little kahani behind it -- it's linked to the tale of a life, the life of a simple, striving village woman who created it, and that's what gives Manjari Sharma satisfaction and happiness.
In a first in India, the fast-food joint is converting used cooking oil into biodiesel, which is used to power 20-25 trucks that make trips to around 275 restaurants carrying supplies from its distribution centre
'India's manufacturing will take 10-15 years to catch up with China.'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
Amid news of a fuel shortage in some parts of the country and wider unrest over fuel issues in the neighbourhood, an analysis of the data from international tracker globalpetrolprices.com shows that the per litre price of petrol is higher in India than in seven out of its nine neighbours.
A swift recovery in oil demand in India is not only helping the stability of the global market, it is giving huge fiscal headroom to the government in terms of additional excise duty.
The wholesale price-based inflation shot up to an all-time high of 10.49 per cent in April, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured items. Also, a low base of April last year contributed to the spike in inflation in April 2021. The WPI inflation was 7.39 per cent in March 2021, and (-) 1.57 per cent in April 2020. This is the fourth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation.
The festival season has already begun in the west and south of India with Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam, respectively, and consumer companies are witnessing a pick-up in sales compared to pre-Covid levels. Retailers, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables companies expect their sales to grow in double digits this festival season compared to pre-pandemic times, as there are no curbs on movement now. Adani Wilmar expects sales volume to be higher by 15-20 per cent as rural India has largely witnessed good monsoon rains, and employment has picked up in urban areas.
